WALL STREET JOURNAL: Hispanic Voters Shift Allegiance to Democrats
Republicans Lose Ground With Minorities After Call For Immigrant Crackdown

By JEANNE CUMMINGS
November 8, 2006; Page A6

WASHINGTON -- Yesterday's voting showed a nation in which the white vote was nearly divided down the middle between Democrats and Republicans -- and a Democratic party that found its edge among minorities, especially in newfound strength with Hispanics. 

In fact, just months after House Republicans used a crackdown on illegal immigrants to energize their party's conservative base, Hispanic voters responded yesterday at the voting booth, shifting decisively toward Democrats.

Exit polls showed more than seven in 10 Hispanics voted Democratic in races for House seats. Meanwhile, some 27% voted Republican -- an 11-percentage-point drop from the prior midterm election in 2002.

The shift among Hispanics accentuated a growing gulf between the Republican Party and minority communities. White voters made up almost 80% of the electorate, and they divided their votes more or less evenly between Democratic and Republican House candidates, the exit polls showed. Minorities including Hispanics, Asians and blacks each favored Democrats; blacks gave nearly 90% of their votes to the party's candidates.

Republicans also appeared to lose some ground with religious groups. While they were backed by a majority of Protestants, the percentage was smaller than in 2002. Among white Protestants, they beat Democrats by a 20-percentage-point margin. Republicans had their best showing among evangelicals, who made up about one-quarter of the electorate. Republicans took about 70% of these votes, compared with 78% in 2004 for President Bush.

The shift among Hispanics is a serious setback for the long-term strategy of President Bush and political adviser Karl Rove to move the nation's fastest-growing minority voting bloc into the Republican column to help solidify the party's dominance for years to come.

Mr. Bush, sometimes in broken Spanish, used a close alliance with the Catholic Church and socially conservative values themes to connect with those voters. According to 2004 exit polls, Mr. Bush received the backing of 44% of Hispanic voters, up from 31% in 2000.

Mr. Bush had hoped to seal the deal this year by pushing a comprehensive overhaul of immigration laws that boosted border patrols but also offered a guest-worker program and a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants already here. But House Republicans rebelled; they declined to move the president's proposal, and instead passed legislation that focused strictly on guarding the border, building a fence along part of it and imposing criminal penalties on many who aid illegal immigrants currently here.

In exit polls, 37% of Hispanic voters ranked illegal immigration as an issue that was "extremely important" to them, compared with 29% of all racial demographic groups. In addition, 78% of Hispanic voters said most illegal immigrants should be given a chance to apply for legal status, compared with 57% from all demographic groups.

The issue of immigration is unresolved on Capitol Hill. The Senate rejected the House's legislation, and the two chambers settled on a bill that called for building a wall and installing other new security protections along the Mexican border. Mr. Bush signed that measure into law in a White House ceremony that was specifically designed to appease the party's anti-immigration wing.

With the 2008 presidential contest in mind, Republicans now may move more cautiously on legislation aimed at the millions of people in the U.S. illegally.

Mr. Bush fought hard to hold onto such states as New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada, all with high Hispanic populations. Democrats have already signaled they plan to fight for those electoral votes in two years.

Write to Jeanne Cummings at jeanne.cummings@wsj.com1